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北美观察丨美国8月CPI同比上涨8.3% 通胀忧虑引发美股暴跌_我的网站

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A | On August 10, 1961, American forces for the first time spayed Agent Orange in Vietnam as part of its herbicidal warfare program, Operation Ranch Hand.,Here’s a closer look into this highly toxic defoliant chemical, the use of which by the US military during the 1955-1975 Vietnam War resulted in up to one million people being disabled, according to the Red Cross of Vietnam’s estimates.,What is Agent Orange?,The defoliant derived its name from the color of the orange-striped US gallon barrels in which the chemical was shipped and stored.,It was created in 1940 and used in the United States as an agricultural defoliant, as it had the ability to kill some plants while leaving others unaffected.,Using the Defense Production Act of 1950, the US government prodded several American companies to make Agent Orange for military use. A 50:50 mixture of the herbicides 2,4,5-T and 2,4-D, the defoliant contains an extremely toxic dioxin compound.,Effects of Agent Orange,A 50:50 mixture of the 2,4,5-Trichlorophenoxyacetic acid and 2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic acid, Agent Orange contains the Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin, or TCDD, the most toxic of the dioxins, classified as a human carcinogen by the US Environmental Protection Agency.,Even short-term exposure to TCDD can cause cancer, liver problems and a severe acne-like skin disease, known as chloracne. The dioxin is also linked to type 2 diabetes, immune system dysfunction, nerve disorders, muscular dysfunction, hormone disruption and heart disease.,Additionally, the chemical can cause miscarriages, spina bifida and other problems with fetal brain and nervous system development.,Use of Agent Orange in Vietnam,During the 1955-1975 Vietnam war, the first US defoliation missions were launched near the Vietnamese village of Dak To in 1961.,The goal was to remove cover and concealment used by the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese Army, so as to reveal hidden bases, communications centers and potential targets, and to improve visibility in tracking troop movements.,More than 13 million gallons (about 59 million liters) of Agent Orange was used by the US military in Vietnam, or almost two-thirds of the total amount of herbicides used during the entire Vietnam War.,The chemical was available in slightly different mixtures, sometimes referred to as Agent Orange I, Agent Orange II, Agent Orange III and “Super Orange”.,End of Agent Orange?,In 1969, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) urged the Pentagon to end its use of herbicides containing dioxin, specifically Agent Orange, something that the Department of Defense (DoD) eventually did.,Even so, the defoliation campaign continued, with the US military switching to Agent White, a chemical herbicide that did not contain the dioxin contaminant.,In May 1970, the US Air Force (USAF) flew its last defoliation mission, and almost a year later, the DoD announced that all crop destruction missions would also cease.,The remaining 2.22 million gallons of Agent Orange were moved by the USAF to Johnston Island Atoll in the South Pacific, where they were incinerated.,Legacy,The Vietnamese government said that up to four million people in the country were exposed to Agent Orange, and as many as three million people had suffered illness because of the defoliant.,The Vietnam Red Cross in turn pointed out that the defoliant had affected at least 150,000 children, and that babies in Vietnam are still being born with birth defects due to Agent Orange. In this regard, numerous studies revealed that dioxin levels are still in place in the blood samples of the citizens of both North and South Vietnam.,The chemical also caused immense environmental damage in Vietnam, with more than 3,100,000 hectares (31,000 km2) of forest being defoliated ( for comparison's sake, Taiwan measures 36,197 km2).,Opinion & AnalysisAnniversary of Agent Orange Disaster: Only United Can We Relieve the Suffering of Many Generations10:21 GMT,Agent Orange-related issues also emerged in the US after an increasing number of returning Vietnam veterans and their families began to report a range of health problems, including skin irritations, miscarriages, psychological symptoms, type 2 diabetes, birth defects in children and cancers such as Hodgkin’s disease, prostate cancer and leukemia.,1979 saw a class action lawsuit filed on behalf of 2.4 million US veterans, who were exposed to Agent Orange during their service in Vietnam. In 1984, seven major US chemical companies that manufactured the defoliant agreed to pay $180 million in damages to the veterans or their next of kin.,Vietnam War,The 1955-1975 Vietnam War, which involved Laos and Cambodia, pitted communist North Vietnam and the Viet Cong revolutionary organization against South Vietnam, supported by Washington.,Preconditions for the war pertained to the desire of North Vietnam, which defeated the French colonial administration in 1954, to unify the entire country under a single communist authority, like in the Soviet Union or China. The South Vietnamese government, for its part, sought to preserve a Vietnam more closely aligned with the West.,The US was concerned over the spread of communism to South Vietnam and then to the rest of Asia, which prompted Washington to end money, supplies and military advisers to help the South Vietnamese government.,On August 2, 1964, North Vietnamese boats attacked a US Navy destroyer, the USS Maddox, patrolling in the Gulf of Tonkin near Vietnam, in what was used by the White House as a pretext to escalate the war and send American combat units to the South East Asian country. However, the US costs and casualties in the war prompted Washington to withdraw American troops by 1973, and a couple of years later, South Vietnam fell to a full-scale invasion by the North.,An array of war crimes was committed by the US military during the war, including the My Lai massacre, in which up to 504 unarmed South Vietnamese civilians, including women, children, and infants, were killed by US Army soldiers on March 16, 1968.,Another war crime pertains to Operation Speedy Express, conducted by the US Army in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta between December 1968 and May 1969 as part of the American military’s effort to pacify the Viet Cong. The operation led to 5,000 to 7,000 casualties who were reported to have been civilians.。

B |

当地时间9月13日，美国劳工部公布数据显示，今年8月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨8.3%，随后在通胀忧虑蔓延的情况下，当日美股市场出现暴跌，三大股指创下两年多来最大单日跌幅。多位分析人士在接受总台央视记者采访时指出，CPI同比增速居高不下，已连续6个月高于8%，特别是核心CPI涨幅加速，表明美国通胀压力短期内难以缓解，而美联储为控制物价被迫持续激进加息，将对美国股市乃至整体经济造成进一步冲击。

C | △美国劳工部数据显示，尽管8月CPI同比增速（蓝线）连续两个月出现下滑，但仍连续6个月高于8%，表明通胀水平居高不下。住房和食品价格持续上行美国劳工部当日公布数据显示，今年8月美国消费者价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.1%，高于市场预期的下降0.1%，同比上涨8.3%，高于市场预期的上涨8.1%。当月，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心CPI环比上涨0.6%，同比上涨6.3%，均高于市场预期。尽管CPI同比增速连续两个月出现下滑，但仍维持在历史高位，并连续6个月高于8%，表明通胀水平居高不下，其中住房、食品和医疗保健价格上涨是主要推手。具体来看，占CPI权重三分之一的住房成本环比上涨0.7%，同比上涨6.2%；食品价格环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨11.4%；医疗保健成本环比上涨0.8%，同比上涨5.6%。分析认为，美国住房和食品价格持续上行，将对消费者心理产生影响，不仅表明通胀具有顽固性，也令美联储缺乏放缓加息的空间，未来将被迫持续激进加息应对通胀。密苏里大学助理教授费利佩·席尔瓦（Felipe Silva）在接受总台央视记者采访时表示：“关于今天刚刚公布的通胀数据，它们比预期的要高一些，市场原本预期比实际数据低0.2个百分点。然而，我想说的是，未来两个月的情况基本就像一个依赖函数，取决于通货膨胀和经济衰退的担忧如何实际演变，你会看到美联储实际上变得更加激进或不那么激进。”费利佩·席尔瓦指出：“截至目前，市场基本已经更新了关于下次加息的预期，我认为这已经明确了，市场预期下次将会加息75个基点，这是到目前为止最有可能出现的情况。

D | ”△彭博社报道称，通胀超预期或将令美联储更激进地收紧货币政策。专家详解股市为何暴跌目前市场普遍预期，美联储将不惜以经济增长放缓为代价，通过激进加息抑制需求，从而达到控制物价的目的。

E | 美联储主席鲍威尔此前在全球央行年会上表示，美联储加息至限制性水平后可能会保持一段时间，强调历史经验表明不应过早放松货币政策。他同时承认，降低通胀可能需要持续一段时间内低于趋势的经济增长，劳动力市场状况很可能会出现一些疲软，这会给美国家庭和企业带来痛苦。鲍威尔等官员的强硬表态，被一些市场人士解读为“只要不看到通胀数据明显好转，美联储就会坚持激进加息的货币政策”，而13日的CPI数据发布后，忧虑情绪迅速弥漫，美国股市当日出现暴跌。截至当日收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌1276.37点，跌幅达3.94%，至31104.97点；标准普尔500指数下跌177.72点，跌幅达4.32%，至3932.69点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌632.84点，跌幅达5.16%，至11633.57点。三大股指均创下2020年6月11日以来最大单日跌幅。本次下跌令道琼斯指数在2022年累计下跌14%，标普500指数下跌17%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌26%。海投全球创始人兼CEO王金龙在接受总台央视记者采访时分析称：“今天美国股市全部暴跌，基本上是由CPI数据超出市场预期导致的。市场最近一周以来对CPI和美联储加息幅度的预期相对比较乐观，股市也一路反弹，而今天直接跌破到月初的水平。8月的CPI数据同比上涨8.3%并不是很离谱，相对7月的8.5%还有小幅下降，但是核心CPI与去年同期对比大幅上涨，而且相对7月的涨幅还在加速。市场对美国能够在今年内有效控制住CPI失去了信心。核心CPI的加速上涨，体现出通胀更加具有‘粘性’。

F | 虽然汽油和出行等价格已经下降，但房屋和食品价格还在上升，同时随着工资水平的提升，服务的价格也在持续上涨。”王金龙指出：“市场本周初基本上预计美联储在9月加息75个基点，甚至小概率会只加息50个基点。

G | 但在8月CPI数据发布之后，整体转向，市场已经预期有1/3的可能会加息100个基点。利率快速上涨会加剧企业和个人的资金成本，进一步压缩利润空间，导致美国经济基本失去了‘软着陆’的希望，所以市场反应剧烈，‘去风险化’的集体意识再次抬头。市场整体抛售资产，持有现金，不仅是股市，包括美国国债、黄金和石油等资产全线下跌，而美元指数在高位上继续攀升。”费利佩·席尔瓦也进一步指出：“如果利率上升，你的资金成本就会随着时间的推移上升，你的消费决定也会受到影响，因此消费者信心就会下滑，这是你能想到的最直接的影响。加息也会对股票价格产生影响，当你加息时，股票价格会有负面反应。当然，企业也会更新它们的投资和消费决定，由于企业预计消费者信心放缓，所以它们会迟疑，自然的后果是，它们将减少投资，它们将减少岗位，而这对经济有类似的整体影响。简而言之，这就是货币政策的传导方式。